The Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update: August 2026
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Market Decline Continues
Home values are now falling across 93% of capital city suburbs according to Cotality, with every capital except Darwin recording a decline over the past three months.
Nationally, values fell 0.9% in August.
Following revisions to prior months, this now marks the fifth consecutive month of decline, taking national home values 3.6% below the market peak recorded in March 2026.
Perth's $1 Million Median Milestone Was Short-Lived
Perth made headlines when its median ‘all dwellings’ value surpassed $1 million back in March 2026.
5 months later, Perth has now slipped back below the mark, with the median now sitting at $999,987 in August.
Brisbane is next in line, sitting just $80,000 above the threshold.
While Melbourne's ‘all dwellings’ median has fallen to $786,718, a figure not seen in some time.
Worth noting that Melbourne has a higher proportion of units in its market than Perth or Brisbane.
Since units are typically carry a lower value than houses, the higher proportion of units weighs down Melbourne's 'all dwellings' median.
Adelaide's ‘house’ only median provided a similar story also dipping below $1 million to $999,091.
Listings Continue to Pile Up Across Most Capitals
Total listings are climbing as buyer demand softens.
Brisbane leads with listings up 26.5% on last year, followed by Adelaide at 24.4%, Melbourne at 22% and Canberra at 14.2%.
Hobart remains the exception, tracking 11.3% below last year's levels.
It's shaping up as a buyer's market, with good opportunities for anyone ready to make a move.
Buyer Confidence Takes a Hit
The "time to buy a dwelling" index dropped almost 11% in a single month, one of the sharpest moves we can recall outside of the COVID period.
The irony isn't lost on us either, with public sentiment turning sharply negative just as conditions on the ground are shaping up as one of the better times to buy in years.
The gap comes down to timing, with sentiment reacting to rate rise headlines and cost of living pressure, often lagging well behind what's actually happening in the market.
We expect this index to rise, and sharply when consumers start to realise this could be the best buying opportunity we will see in a long time.
Renters Get No Reprieve as Rent Keep Rising
National rents are up 5.7% over the past year.
Since 2021, rents have increased 39%, meaning renters are now handing over around $200 more per week than they were 5 years ago.
Perth has recorded the largest increase, with rents up 56% since 2021.
With investors continuing to exit the market, the pressure on renters shows little sign of easing from here.
That's good news for investors who hold their ground or move to purchase now, with rising rents combined with softer prices delivering strong rental yields.
Bond Markets Are Sending a Clear Message on Government Debt
Australia's 10 year bond yield has hit 5.366%, its highest level in 15 years, meaning markets expect interest rates to average around 100 basis points higher than today's RBA cash rate of 4.30% over the next decade.
Similar moves are playing out overseas, with the UK just off a 19 year high and the US at levels not seen since before the global financial crisis in 2008.
This isn't just an interest rates story, it's a government debt story.
Bond markets are effectively pricing in higher borrowing costs as the consequence of high government debt levels, both here and abroad.
The upshot is that inflation could stay higher for longer unless governments start reining in spending.
Money Markets Now Lean Toward Another Rate Rise
Money markets are pricing in a 76% chance of a rate hike at the RBA's next meeting on 29 September.
The shift follows July's CPI release, where trimmed mean inflation (the RBA’s preferred measure) held at 3.6% in the 12 months to July, stronger than the market had hoped for.
Three of the four major banks abandoned their 2027 rate cut calls in favour of a near-term hike following this July CPI release.
We wonder whether the RBA will hold fire instead, allowing more time for the three previous rate rises to flow through the economy, and to assess consumer spending and sentiment as property prices continue to decline.
As Expected, Investor Lending Pulls Back
Investor lending fell 10% in the March to June quarter, only capturing the tail end of the tax changes that took effect after the May budget.
The full impact hasn't hit the data yet, and we expect the next quarter's figures to show a far sharper drop once the changes are fully reflected.
It's part of a broader shift, with fewer investors buying properties due to the removal of negative gearing on established property and increase to capital gain tax.
Investor lending as a share of all lending was sitting in the high thirties before the budget, and some forecasters expect it could fall as low as 20%.
We wonder if it may fall further than that.
For renters already dealing with record low vacancy rates and steep rent increases, fewer investors in the market will only add to the strain, with even less rental stock available to lease.
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