The Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update: June 2026
- Property Planning Australia
- Jul 9
- 4 min read
Welcome to the Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update, your comprehensive resource for the latest insights and trends in the real estate and economic landscape!
Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert analysis, helping you make well-informed decisions in the ever-evolving property market.
June Brings a National Downturn, But the Picture is More Nuanced
According to Cotality, national dwelling values fell 0.4% in June, with the quarterly decline now sitting at 1.3% across the combined capitals.
But the national headline masks a divided market.
Sydney and Melbourne led the falls, while most other capitals recorded either flat or modest results.
Darwin stood out as the only capital to record meaningful growth at 1.4% for the month, though even that momentum is showing signs of easing.
REA, which uses a different methodology, already has every capital city except Darwin in negative territory for June.
In a rapidly changing market, tracking multiple indices gives you earlier intel as home value data can lag what is actually happening on the ground by months.
We suspect that most markets are already selling at 5 to 10% below their peak.
Mid-Size Capitals Are Losing Steam
The markets that were accelerating fastest are now decelerating fastest, according to Cotality.
Adelaide has come back to flat.
Brisbane is clinging to 0.3% monthly growth.
Perth, which was recording 2.5% monthly growth in March, has more than halved to 0.7%.
The direction of travel is clear.
What began as a slowdown in monthly growth has now translated into a consistent downward trend in the rolling quarterly figures.
Most capital city markets are on a pathway to negative territory in the back half of 2026.
Asking Prices Are Already Adjusting
Asking prices are a leading indicator.
Vendors tend to adjust their expectations before sales data reflects what is actually happening on the ground.
The rolling monthly asking price data from SQM Research reveals a telling story.
Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are now all in negative territory across houses, units and combined dwellings.
Perth and Adelaide are seeing unit asking prices fall first.
Darwin and Hobart have houses and the combined measure in negative territory.
The sole exception is Canberra, where asking prices remain slightly positive on the rolling month.
However, with weekly changes already negative there, that may be about to change.
Is Darwin Nearing Its Peak?
New listings in Darwin are up 33% from twelve months ago, though it's worth noting this is from a low base.
Still, a significant signal in a small market.
Investors who lived through Darwin's previous decade-long downturn will recognise the pattern and some are already considering their exit.
Total Listings Are Rising as Buyers Step Back
Total listings are up year-on-year in almost every capital city except Perth, Darwin and Hobart, and those markets are trending in the same direction.
The increase in listings is being driven by properties sitting unsold for longer as buyer activity softens.
Rental Pressure Shows No Sign of Easing
National rents rose 0.5% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, representing annualised growth of around 6%, well above both inflation and wage growth.
Annual rental growth nationally sits at 5.9% for the past twelve months.
With inflation in the high threes to low fours and income growth around 3%, renting is becoming increasingly unaffordable for a growing number of households.
If rents continue rising at this pace, pressure on the government will only intensify.
Combined with falling home values, rental yields will continue to drive upwards, making it more attractive for investors to get back into the market. (see below)
Gross Rental Yields Are on a Hockey Stick Trajectory
With rents rising and property values softening, gross rental yields are climbing quickly.
This is the free market beginning to rebalance.
For investors prepared to take a long view, the numbers are starting to look more interesting, particularly in Melbourne's established apartment market.
Well-located two-bedroom apartments in boutique blocks, ideally under twelve dwellings with no lift and car spaces in high-amenity streets, are now achieving gross yields above 5% in some inner areas.
That has not been the case for a very long time.
With interest rates potentially easing in the second half of next year, net returns could improve significantly from here.
Vacancy Rates Remain Critically Low
Vacancy rates came in at 1.3% nationally for June, well below the decade average of 2.5% and even further below the pre-COVID five-year average of 3.3%.
The rental crisis is unlikely to resolve itself soon.
The new tax legislation does nothing to increase rental supply and Treasury's own modelling confirmed this.
As rents continue to climb, the pressure on both tenants and the government to find a solution will only grow.
As rents continue to climb and tenants feel the financial squeeze, the pressure on the government to act will become too large to ignore.
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If you would like to discuss your next steps, property plans, and mortgage strategy, get in touch with us today. Our team of experts is here to guide you through the complexities of the market and help you achieve your property goals.
