The Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update: November 2026
The October numbers are in and they make for sobering reading.
Across the capital cities home values have slid 8.1% in only seven months, the quickest fall in at least four decades.
At the same time rents are still climbing, yields have reached an 11 year high and the number of homes for sale keeps increasing.
But downturns don’t last forever.
We're keeping a close eye on the Victorian election in a few weeks, which David says could provide some respite for Melbourne property owners with land tax relief on the table.
The Fastest Downturn in 40 Years
Combined capital city home values have fallen 8.1% in just seven months, the fastest decline in at least 40 years of Cotality data.
It is not yet the deepest downturn on record, but the 8.2% peak to trough fall of 2017 to 2019 is now within reach.
Nationally, home values fell 1.2% in October, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, leaving them 6.7% below the March peak.
That equates to around $63,400 off the median Australian dwelling.
Falling Prices Haven’t Fixed Affordability
Prices are falling, but buyers haven’t caught a break.
The national median dwelling value is down around $63,400 from the March peak.
Borrowing capacity for a median income household has fallen by around $88,000.
In other words, rate hikes have taken a bigger bite out of buyers’ budgets than the market has taken out of prices.
That’s a 12% fall in borrowing power against a 6.7% fall in values.
Brisbane and Perth Overtake Sydney as the Fastest Fallers
Brisbane (down 2.0%) and Perth (down 1.7%) have overtaken Sydney (down 1.6%) over the month.
Across the quarter Brisbane has fallen 6.1% and Perth 5.7%, the steepest declines in the country.
Hobart (up 0.5%) and Darwin (up 0.6%) bucked the trend in October with gains, while Melbourne fell 0.8% and Canberra 0.7%.
The Most Affordable Homes Are Holding Up Best
Across most capitals the cheapest quarter of homes is holding up best over the past three months.
Darwin’s lowest quartile is still up 1.9%, though the Trio suspect it will fall into line within a couple of months.
Perth and Brisbane stand out, with every price tier down between 5.3% and 6.2%.
Canberra and Perth Houses Join Adelaide Below $1 Million
Canberra’s median house value has slipped to $983,965 and Perth’s to $982,146, joining Adelaide ($977,551) below the $1 million mark.
Perth is falling so quickly that its median house value now sits below Canberra’s.
Melbourne’s median house value of $906,067 is roughly $71,000 to $76,000 below Perth and Adelaide, raising the question of whether it could climb back above them over the next couple of years.
On the ‘all dwellings’ measure (houses and units combined) Brisbane’s median is $1,018,401, only $18,401 above $1 million.
Rent Growth Is Easing but the Pressure Remains
National rents are up 5.3% over the year to October, the slowest annual pace since December 2025.
Even so, rents have risen 52% over the past six years, adding around $245 a week to the median rent.
Renters are likely approaching a ceiling on what they can afford to pay, and the Trio believe more are finding other arrangements such as moving back home or sharing.
Rental Yields Hit an 11-Year High
With values falling and rents still rising, the gross rental yield across the combined capitals has reached 3.77%, the highest since May 2015.
Darwin leads at 6.4% while Melbourne (4.1%) and Sydney (3.5%) are at their highest in at least four years.
Yields remain well short of what an established property needs to cover its holding costs, and the Trio expect them to keep climbing for at least another six months.
Fewer New Listings but More Stock Than Ever
Total listings are up 18.6% on last year even though new listings are down 13.9%.
That gap tells the story, with vendors holding back while buyers back away and stock sits for longer.
Brisbane is the clearest example, with new listings down 12.4% while the number of properties for sale is up 59.5%.
In Sydney and Melbourne new listings are down 26.6% and 29.4% as owners wait for the market to turn.
SQM Research has total listings at their highest in more than five years, with Melbourne and Canberra at record highs.
Buyer Sentiment Splits Along State Lines
Westpac’s ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index rose 1.3% to 89.6 in November, but the state breakdown is extreme.
Victoria is the only state in positive territory at 101 compared with Queensland at 93 and NSW at 91.
South Australia sits at 76, while Western Australia (56) and Tasmania (54) are deeply pessimistic.
The house price expectations index fell 13.4% to 99.6, the first reading below 100 since November 2022.
Victoria remains the most optimistic at 113 (down 2.4%) followed by NSW at 103 (down 13%).
Western Australia (93) and South Australia (92) have fallen 20% and 18% respectively.
Queensland has had the steepest drop, down 32% to 86.
The RBA Lifts Again but Markets Think the Peak May Be Close
The RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% in November, the fifth hike this year and the highest rate in 18 years.
The decision was not unanimous, with three of the nine board members voting to hold.
Money markets now see only a 14% chance of another hike by March 2027.
Want to learn more?
Falling property prices don't necessarily mean every market is becoming more affordable, and changing interest rate expectations can make borrowing decisions more complicated.
Whether you're considering your next purchase, reviewing an investment or wondering if your current home loan is still competitive, understanding how these changes affect your circumstances is what matters.
Listen to Episode 383 of The Property Trio Podcast for our full discussion of the latest market developments.
Reach Out to Us
If you would like to discuss your next steps, property plans, and mortgage strategy, get in touch with us today. Our team of experts is here to guide you through the complexities of the market and help you achieve your property goals.
