The Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update: September 2026
Welcome to the Property Planner’s Monthly Market Update, your comprehensive resource for the latest insights and trends in the real estate and economic landscape!
Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert analysis, helping you make well-informed decisions in the ever-evolving property market.
Six Months of Falling Property Prices
Australia's housing downturn has extended into a sixth consecutive month, with national dwelling values falling 1.1% in September.
Values are now 5.2% below their March 2026 peak, with the decline spreading across almost every capital city suburb.
According to Cotality, 97% of capital city suburbs recorded falling values over the September quarter.
But the more interesting story is where the declines are now being felt.
The markets that led Australia's property boom are now experiencing some of the sharpest corrections.
Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, previously among Australia's strongest property markets, are now recording some of the sharpest monthly falls.
Darwin remains the exception, recording modest growth in September, although Dave expects the market is likely to move into negative territory in the coming months.
The million-dollar question now is whether the previously strong markets of Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide have some serious pain ahead.
Melbourne's Decline Is Slowing. Could November’s Election Be a Turning Point?
Melbourne's property market is showing early signs that the pace of decline may be easing.
Dwelling values fell 0.7% in September, a milder decline than Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
But the longer-term figures tell an even more interesting story.
Over the past decade, Melbourne dwelling values have increased just 24%, compared with more than 100% in Brisbane and Adelaide and just shy of this in Perth.
Melbourne's median dwelling value now sits at $780,550, still 7.5% below its March 2022 peak.
Melbourne's prolonged period of underperformance is one reason the market could be well positioned when the property cycle eventually turns.
With Victoria's state election approaching in November, a potential change of government could breathe new life into the state's economy and help restore confidence.
Also of note is the resilience of more affordable properties, particularly well-located apartments and villa units, given Melbourne’s unit market is very affordable relative to many other capital cities when comparing medians.
While it's too early to call a recovery, Melbourne's relative resilience could signal a shift in market momentum.
Fewer New Listings, But More Properties Sitting Unsold
Spring usually brings a fresh wave of properties to market.
This year, the story is different.
Across the combined capitals, new listings are 11.9% lower than a year ago, yet total advertised stock has increased 23.1%.
With homes taking longer to sell, unsold stock is accumulating.
The median selling period has increased from 23 days to 39 days over the past year.
It's an unusual combination: fewer new properties coming onto the market, but more homes available for buyers to choose from.
For buyers with their finances in order, that could mean less competition and greater negotiating power.
For sellers, realistic pricing is becoming increasingly important.
Rental Growth Eases, But Affordability Remains Under Pressure
There's some early relief in the pace of rental growth, although renters are still facing substantial financial pressure.
National rents increased 0.3% in September, the slowest monthly rise since May 2025. While this represents an annualised growth rate of approximately 3.6%, rents remain 5.5% higher than a year ago.
Over the past five years, the average weekly rent has increased by approximately $200.
With household budgets stretched, affordability pressures may be pushing more renters towards smaller properties, shared accommodation or locations further from major employment centres.
There are also signs that rental availability is improving.
Cotality reports that the national vacancy rate has risen to 2.0%, although this remains well below the pre-pandemic decade average of 3.3%
Investors Are Seeing Higher Rental Yields
Falling property values and continued rental growth are creating an interesting shift for property investors.
National gross rental yields have increased to 3.85%, their highest level since August 2019.
Some boutique apartments are achieving gross rental yields above 5%.
For investors, softer purchase prices and stronger rental yields may be creating opportunities.
But with borrowing costs still elevated, careful property selection and understanding the numbers remain critical.
Consumer Confidence Plunges, Yet Buyers See Opportunity
Consumer confidence has taken another hit following September's interest rate increase.
The October Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% to 80.4, reflecting growing concerns about household finances and further interest rate rises.
Yet housing-related sentiment tells a different story.
The 'time to buy a dwelling' index increased 3.4% to 88.4 nationally, with Victoria and New South Wales recording the highest state readings at 93.
House price expectations also edged higher, with the national index rising 4.3% to 115.1.
It's an interesting contradiction.
Despite growing concerns about the economy, buyers in Victoria and New South Wales are showing relatively stronger confidence in purchasing property.
Will the RBA Raise Rates Again on Melbourne Cup?
The board meeting that stops the nation!
September's interest rate increase lifted the official cash rate to 4.60%, adding further pressure to mortgage holders.
And while another increase remains possible, the latest employment figures are casting doubt on whether further tightening is necessary.
September employment unexpectedly fell by 39,300 people, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.7%.
The weaker-than-expected result has dampened expectations of another RBA rate rise.
Dave expects economic conditions could weaken further and questions whether the RBA should allow more time for previous rate increases to work through the economy.
With inflation still a concern, however, another increase cannot be ruled out.
For mortgage holders, it's an important time to understand how future rate changes could affect repayments and whether their current loan arrangements remain suitable.
Cotality vs PropTrack: Different Numbers, Similar Direction
The latest figures from Cotality and PropTrack both point to a weakening housing market, although the scale of the reported declines differs.
Cotality recorded a 1.1% national fall in September, while PropTrack reported a smaller decline of 0.2%.
The difference reflects the providers' distinct data and methodologies.
While the figures vary, the takeaway is clear: property prices are falling, and buyers are navigating a very different market from earlier this year.
Want to learn more? Listen to the Property Trio Podcast
Falling property prices don't necessarily mean every market is becoming more affordable, and changing interest rate expectations can make borrowing decisions more complicated.
Whether you're considering your next purchase, reviewing an investment or wondering if your current home loan is still competitive, understanding how these changes affect your circumstances is what matters.
Listen to Episode 383 of The Property Trio Podcast for our full discussion of the latest market developments.
Reach Out to Us
If you would like to discuss your next steps, property plans, and mortgage strategy, get in touch with us today. Our team of experts is here to guide you through the complexities of the market and help you achieve your property goals.
